How Long Will My Pension Last?
It's the question behind every other pension question, and the answer mostly comes down to one number: the percentage of your pot you withdraw each year. Draw 4% and a typical pot has a good chance of outliving you. Draw 8% and it could be gone in about 15 years. This guide walks through the maths, the famous 4% rule, the newer research that trims it to 3.9%, and the traps that empty pots faster than the spreadsheet promised.
Start with how long retirement lasts
Most people underestimate this. ONS figures suggest a 65-year-old man will live to around 85 on average, and a woman to around 87. Averages hide the tail, though: roughly one in four people who reach 65 will make it into their early 90s (source: ONS life expectancy calculator, checked August 2026).
So if you retire at 65, plan for 20 years as the baseline and treat 30 as a real possibility. Retire at 60 and a 30-year retirement is close to the default assumption. That's the timespan your pot, plus the State Pension, has to cover.
The 4% rule, and where it came from
The classic rule of thumb works like this: in your first year of retirement you withdraw 4% of your pot. Each year after that you take the same cash amount, increased by inflation. Based on decades of historical market data, that approach would have kept a mixed portfolio of shares and bonds going for at least 30 years in almost every historical period tested.
On a £200,000 pot, that means £8,000 in year one, rising with inflation after that. Add the full new State Pension of £12,548 a year (2026/27) and you have a floor of just over £20,500, before tax.
The rule is a planning tool, not a promise
The 4% rule came from historical US market data. Real returns in future can be worse, UK fund charges eat into the growth the rule assumes, and your own retirement only happens once. Treat it as a sensible starting point for planning, not a guarantee.
Why researchers now say 3.9%
Morningstar, an investment research firm, re-runs this analysis every year using forward-looking return and inflation assumptions rather than pure history. Its research puts the highest safe starting withdrawal rate for someone retiring in 2026 at 3.9%. That figure assumes a 30-year retirement, a portfolio holding 30% to 50% in shares, and a 90% chance of the money lasting (source: Morningstar retirement income research, published December 2025).
The same research makes a point that matters more than the headline number: retirees who can be flexible, spending less in years when markets fall rather than demanding a fixed inflation-linked income, could start closer to 6%. Flexibility is worth real money. If your essential bills are covered by the State Pension and any guaranteed income, you can afford to treat the rest as adjustable.
How many years each withdrawal rate buys
Here is an illustration of how long a pot lasts at different starting withdrawal rates. It assumes investment growth of 5% a year after charges, with the withdrawal amount rising 2.5% a year for inflation. The percentage is what matters: the years are the same whether the pot is £100,000 or £500,000.
| Starting withdrawal rate | On a £200,000 pot | Roughly how long it lasts |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9% | £7,800 a year | 40 years |
| 5% | £10,000 a year | 27 years |
| 6% | £12,000 a year | 21 years |
| 8% | £16,000 a year | 15 years |
The gap between the rows is the whole story. Moving from 4% to 6% doesn't shave a few years off, it roughly halves how long the money lasts, because you're withdrawing more while the pot has less left to grow. Small differences in the withdrawal rate compound just like small differences in charges do.
Sequence risk: why the first five years matter most
Two retirees can earn the same average return over 25 years and end up with wildly different outcomes. The difference is the order the returns arrive in.
Suppose markets fall 20% in your first year of retirement. Your £200,000 pot drops to £160,000, and your £8,000 withdrawal is now 5% of what's left rather than 4%. You're selling more units at low prices to fund the same income, so fewer units remain to recover when markets bounce back. The same 20% fall in year 15 does far less damage, because years of growth have already banked.
This is called sequence of returns risk, and it's the main reason sensible plans hold one to three years of spending in cash or low-risk assets. Drawing from cash in bad years, instead of selling investments at the bottom, protects the pot's ability to recover.
Five things that change the answer
- Your charges. A pot growing at 5% before fees grows at 4% after a 1% fee, and the withdrawal table above worsens accordingly. Our guide to pension charges shows what a difference under 1% makes.
- The State Pension. £12,548 a year of inflation-protected income (2026/27, full new State Pension) that never runs out. The bigger the share of your spending it covers, the harder your pot can afford to work. Check your forecast on GOV.UK before you plan anything.
- Annuitising some of the pot. Swapping a slice of the pot for an annuity buys guaranteed income for life and lowers the withdrawal rate the rest has to sustain.
- Tax. Withdrawals beyond the 25% tax-free portion are taxable income. Draw too much in one year and you push yourself into a higher band, shrinking what you actually keep.
- The 2027 inheritance tax change. From April 2027 unused pension pots are due to fall within inheritance tax. Leaving the pension untouched to pass on is becoming less attractive, which is nudging some retirees to spend the pension sooner. Our guide to the 2027 change covers it.
See what your pot could pay
Put your own pot size, age and contributions into the free calculator and see the income different withdrawal rates would give you.
Try the calculator →Common questions
How long will my pension last with the 4% rule?
The rule is built to make a pot last about 30 years: withdraw 4% in year one, then increase the cash amount with inflation. In our illustration at 5% growth it lasts beyond 30 years, but poor early returns can shorten that, which is why newer research trims the starting rate to 3.9%.
Is the 4% rule still safe in 2026?
Morningstar's 2026 figure is 3.9% for a fixed inflation-linked income with a 90% success rate over 30 years. If you can cut spending in bad market years, you could sustainably start higher, potentially near 6%. Charges and your investment mix move the answer for you personally.
How long does retirement actually last?
ONS figures put average life expectancy at 65 at around 85 for men and 87 for women, and about one in four 65-year-olds reaches the early 90s. Planning for 25 to 30 years is prudent rather than pessimistic.
What makes a pot run out faster?
Withdrawing too high a percentage, poor returns early in retirement, high charges and inflation. The early-years problem (sequence risk) is the one most people miss: a crash in year one hurts far more than the same crash in year fifteen.
Sources
- Safe starting withdrawal rate of 3.9% for 2026 (30-year horizon, 30% to 50% equities, 90% success): Morningstar retirement income research, December 2025, as reported by MoneyWeek.
- Life expectancy at 65: ONS life expectancy calculator, checked August 2026.
- Full new State Pension £12,548 a year (£241.30 a week), 2026/27: GOV.UK.
- Pot duration table: Pension Sprout illustration assuming 5% annual growth after charges and withdrawals rising 2.5% a year. Not a projection of actual returns.
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This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The pot duration table is an illustration built on fixed assumptions, and actual investment returns, inflation and charges will differ; figures relate to the 2026/27 tax year and are correct as of August 2026. For advice tailored to you, speak to a financial adviser regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), or get free guidance from MoneyHelper.